DS2434 Weather Blog

New Years Storm

2009-12-29T18:47:00.000-05:00

*Heavy snow possible in Eastern New England/Maine*

Not ready for a full update yet, but I do want to remind everyone that New Years Eve/New Years Day is going to get dicey weather-wise. Keep that in mind when making plans...

I will probably have a full update later tonight or tomorrow, but this has potential to be quite a memorable storm in ENE/NNE.

Dec. 29th Clipper Map

2009-12-27T16:10:00.002-05:00

Had to cut back on amounts as the models have trended north with heaviest QPF.

Dec. 29th Clipper Forecast

2009-12-26T22:34:00.002-05:00

*A solid advisory-level snow event north of the Mass. Pike in New England Tuesday night/Little for the Mid Atlantic*

A clipper coming down from Canada will enter the northeast Tuesday night, bringing with it some plowable snow for a good chunk of New England. Usually, clippers are moisture starved and generally produce snow in the 1-3'' range. However, that's not quite the case with this one. As it reaches New England, it's going to intensify (not a Miller B as no secondary is formed). Because of this, it should be able to throw down some decent QPF amounts in central and northern New England. I'm expecting snow for the interior, though areas closer to the coast will probably mix as temps in the BL are relatively marginal.

No map yet, but I'm thinking 1-2'' south of the Pike, 2-5''+ north (some areas may see a spot 6'' amount), and 1-2'' in far Northern New England and northern Maine. Mixing and rain near the coasts.

A larger storm is looming after New Years day (so your New Years Eve plans should be fine), and the potential is there for it to be quite a storm...however, it's a week or so away, and obviously there are a lot of things that could go wrong at this point. More on that as we get closer...

MLB Home Run Derby and All Star Game Forecasts

2009-07-13T01:05:00.002-04:00

Hey all, figured I'd update the blog with some info the the MLB festivities that will happen over the next two days at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri.

Both days (Monday, HR Derby, and Tuesday, All Star Game) look to be warm and dry, with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. There will be some precipitation to the south of St. Louis, but it will stay south of the area throughout both days. What affected the MLB Futures Game today will be long gone by tomorrow. With warm temps and moderate dewpoints, the ball should be able to carry well so the Home Run Derby could be a memorable one.

Enjoy the games!

June 30 Severe Weather

2009-06-29T14:24:00.002-04:00

Saint Patrick's Day

2009-03-15T09:24:00.003-04:00

High pressure will be in control and it'll keep most areas dry and sunny except for the slight chance of a morning shower around central PA and SW NY. I think those will be pretty isolated and early enough so they shouldn't hinder any plans.

Here's the map:
Hope you all have a great day - the weather will cooperate!

Finally An Update

2009-03-14T10:53:00.003-04:00

It's been a while since I've updated this...I forgot all about it. Anyway, I'm going to try and keep this updated on a more regular basis now as winter is ending and spring is beginning.

You can't call off winter yet, but I'm thinking that the potential for any more snowstorms is dwindling each day. There are some long shots on the long range models, but chances are they won't come to fruition. It's not easy to get snow in late March, and unless things set up perfectly it'd be more than likely a rain or mix. We still have to keep our eyes on the long range models, but I think that we're coming to the end of snow season.

We'll see some possible showery weather south of New England during the day tomorrow, but I don't think that there will be much steady or heavy rain - some places may even stay completely dry. Other than that, it's looking dry and seasonal for a while, including St. Patrick's Day which I'll have a more in depth forecast on later.

Have a nice weekend!

No Coastal? No Problem

2009-01-17T11:22:00.005-05:00

Portions of New England are going to see warning criteria snowfall from the clipper tomorrow, and the map below shows which areas I think will be able to make it over the 6'' mark. The coastal storm that was on the models is going to be just far enough out to sea that it shouldn't affect anyone with much of anything. Cape Cod and Long Island might see some additional QPF, though.

Jan 15/16 Map #2

2009-01-13T16:06:00.002-05:00

I'm lowering my amounts as I'm thinking now that this clipper is going to be so moisture starved, that 2-4'' should be the top amounts, even with snow to liquid ratios hanging around 20:1. Some people may see 5'' from this, but I think that'll be rare and isolated. Chances are this is my final map, though I might have to tweak it just a bit tomorrow. This is pretty much just your average clipper...

Map

2009-01-12T19:04:00.004-05:00

1-3'' of snow coming from a clipper on Tuesday. Bigger event possible for Thursday? Maybe not by much, but my preliminary map is above. More to come later...

Here We Go!

2009-01-10T19:15:00.003-05:00

Snow is starting to overspread SNE now (as virga in some places), and we should all start by 8 o'clock. Looking at radar trends and using a blend of the RGEM/GGEM/EMCWF (I think these are handling the storm the best based on the radar), I'm going balls to the wall for 6-10'' of snow around here. The radar is building in, and we have great banding to the west. I don't think that these bands break down as much as the NAM/GFS model them to, which is why I'm going with the foreign models. Snow ratios and snow growth will be very good north of the Mass. Pike as well, which will allow for faster accumulating snow, even if we have a little less QPF than south of the Pike.

Get ready for a nice little snowstorm.

**The snowmap below is still valid**

The REAL final map

2009-01-10T13:30:00.002-05:00

Here's the final map for the storm...last minute changes...

SNE is the place to be!

2009-01-10T09:50:00.002-05:00

Models have shifted north, so that means that the heaviest accumulations are now being expected in Southern New England and N NJ, C/S NY. 5-10'' should fall in these areas, with the jackpot of that range somewhere in SNE. Mixing may be an issue on Long Island, in the NYC area, and in central/southern PA and central/southern NJ, so accumulations will be cut down to 3-6'' in those areas, and 1-3'' in far southern PA where dryslotting and mixing will be an issue. I'll post any more late updates here, as this storm might have a few more tricks up its sleeve.

January 10-11 Storm

2009-01-08T17:31:00.004-05:00

Hi folks, talk about blogitis!! Anyway, here's my early map for the upcoming snowstorm. I'm concerned that the models may be overdoing QPF a bit, being this is actually a relatively weak clipper (before it hits the Atlantic, at least), so I'm going conservative for the time being. Note that mixing is possible in the Philadelphia area, which would limit accumulations. Also, the ECMWF does concern me a bit as it is still pretty far north. It has been known to deviate from most other guidance and still have the right solution, so until that solution is similar to other models, I've got to be weary. All in all, I'm not ready to go balls to the wall on snow yet.

Storm Recap

2008-12-01T15:43:00.005-05:00

Good afternoon folks, boy was yesterday gloomy. Locally (Nashua, NH), we started off with some snow, then changed to sleet, and then plain rain. The precipitation began a lot sooner than anticipated, so the charging warm air wasn't able to beat the precipitation. That's why we started out wintry and gradually changed to rain.

According to SnowMatrix, places like Vernon, NY, Turner, ME, and Paramus, NJ also saw wintry precip at the onset, giving them a coating of snow before the changeover as well. Overall it was a very tough storm to forecast, given the model inaccuracies and disagreements, as well as the unexpected arrival of precipitation.

There is a lot of long-range stuff to deal with, and I'll probably have a full entry on that for tomorrow. Have a great Monday!

Now That

2008-12-01T15:43:00.001-05:00

New England Update

2008-11-30T10:35:00.002-05:00

Winter Weather Advisories have been put out for southern Mass. and northern CT due to the earlier than expected advancement of precipitation. Warm air advection has not yet been able to raise both surface and upper air temps above freezing even though the precipitation is falling.

The WWAs are calling for the possibility of 1'' snow/sleet and then an additional tenth of an inch of freezing rain before switching over to all rain. It could make some roads pretty slippery in these areas.

Miraculous Changes!

2008-11-29T09:22:00.003-05:00

EXTREME MODEL SHIFTS TO THE EAST! ARCTIC HIGH APPEARS! MAJOR EAST COAST SNOWSTORM!

Nah, I'm just kidding, nothing has really changed since yesterday. The primary low is still progged to be the stronger low, move west of the Apps, and act like a blowtorch along the east coast. Most people warm up to rain no matter where they are (though some people up north see a mix or snow to mix first). The awful storm track for snow and the lack of an arctic high never gave us much of a chance. The long range, however, looks very promising.

We're going to enter a period next week of back to back to back storms with the third one looking like it has potential to be a major storm along the east coast...more to come on that as we get into closer range as it just might get snowy around here if this pans out.

Map Update

2008-11-28T10:09:00.002-05:00

Good morning everyone, hope you all had an awesome Thanksgiving! Anyways, I made a second map for the Nov30/Dec1 storm and I hate to say it, but it's looking even warmer. This may be my final map...if anything I'm thinking I might even have to go a little warmer.

Feel free to comment on this or any of my other entries...they're always welcomed and appreciated.

Sorry Fellow Snowlovers!

2008-11-27T22:06:00.005-05:00

Sorry folks, but as I'm sitting here (listening to the Requiem for a Dream Theme on the electric guitar, by the way - great song) I'm thinking we're looking at a rainstorm for the I-95 corridor and even places NW of it. We have two things working against us. First is the lack of very cold air in place or an moderate to strong high to the north to funnel cold air in and second is the inland storm track which will help push any cold air we have in place out. These two problems don't seem like they're going to be "fixed" on the models before the storm hits. So it's looking like rain...BUT, cold air is going to move in after this storm moves out so it will feel a little more wintry out here. The way I like to look at is that it's only November. It would be incredible to see a snowstorm in the I-95 area during this time of year, so I think everyone should be happy about this...winter is not far off.

It's raining.../Long Range

2008-11-25T17:08:00.003-05:00

Lots of rain here today and no snow (unless I missed it in the early morning). This should continue for a little while but the end is near. Once this rain is all gone, tomorrow is looking like a nice day with temperatures in the low 40s. I'm not really excited about this rain, though. I'm more interested in talking long range.

After looking at the models for today, I'm interested in two storms. One for the 29th and one for December 1. Now the 29th storm is going to be a rainstorm and right now it's looking like some light rain only. Nothing too important, but it's still 84 hours out and could change (strength wise - still going to rain). I'm more interested in December 1. We have a developing storm and guess what....the models are all over the place. The ECMWF is calling for an inland storm, the GFS has it crossing over Long Island and Southern New England, the DGEX is offshore, and the JMA is off the coast of VA and through the Cape. (Of course I'm not basing my forecast on the DGEX and JMA, but the point was to show that we have 4 models going out that far and no solution is really all that close to the other.)

Now, what makes the most sense to me? Well, the PNA shoots to +1 on December first and the NAO falls to -3, which tells me the GFS and the Euro are wrong. I don't see an inland storm and I don't see a coastal hugger. Now are the JMA and the DGEX right? Doubtful, but they make a heck of a lot more sense. The DGEX shows a suppressed solution (I'm so sick of that word, but I have to say it) and the JMA shows a track closer to what I'd expect with the teleconnections the way they are, but the chances are slim it'll verify for no other reason than it's the 168 hour JMA. The bottom line is to stay tuned because this could be a pretty decent storm. More is coming over the next few days.

Monday-Tuesday Storm Forecast

2008-11-22T14:57:00.002-05:00

Here's my map for the storm.
Obviously I'm taking the warm route for this one. Surface temperatures are going to be too warm for snow at the coast, through the I-95 region, and well inland as well. I don't think we see significant mixing with accumulation until west-central PA, NY, and northern VT, NH, NY, and ME as well. The precipitation will start as snow way up in the sky and it'll make it a ways down but it's going to melt a few thousand feet before it reaches the surface in most locations.

Well, no snow this time around, but early December is looking pretty interesting.

November 19-21 Clipper Forecast

2008-11-15T23:40:00.002-05:00

Finally I feel motivated enough to update the blog again...hopefully my motivation keeps up.

Anyways, there's a clipper system on the models for next week and it's not looking too impressive. We're in a very progressive pattern and a zonal flow so the clipper won't be producing any significant weather. It's going to zip down from Canada, drop some snow showers on the NYC area, and zip right on out to sea and then develop into a powerful storm. It's too late for us though, so we see no significant precip. When we're in this type of pattern, storms tend to move very quickly from west to east without producing much precipitation and therefore not affecting the weather in a significant way...this clipper is a textbook example of that.

The sad thing is that temps are definitely cold enough to support snow, but we can't get any significant moisture around here to give us some accumulating snow. This clipper is going to produce some snow showers and some places in and around NYC will get a quick dusting to maybe an inch, but that's about it.

Only a little over a month until winter starts folks :)

Rain Tomorrow

2008-10-24T18:53:00.003-04:00

Yep...tomorrow should be a washout. Rain is going to be moving in tomorrow morning or early afternoon and lasting until very early Sunday morning. I expect most areas to receive around an inch of rain from this. It should clear out fast and Sunday is looking like a nice day with another chance at some showers Monday.

Enjoy the weekend folks!

Snow!

2008-10-22T13:01:00.002-04:00

There was snow in northern New England last night, especially in northern Maine. Here are some of the totals: ... Winter's knocking on our door.
Maine

... Aroostook County...
Estcourt 6.0 1020 am 10/22 spotter
Freedom Acres 6.0 637 am 10/22 spotter near ft Kent
Fort Kent 4.0 902 am 10/22
Saint Francis 4.0 810 am 10/22
Estcourt Road 4.0 1000 am 10/22 border patrol
Saint Agatha 3.5 1041 am 10/22
Allagash 3.0 640 am 10/22
Castle Hill 3.0 727 am 10/22 near 1000ft elev
Clayton Lake 3.0 904 am 10/22
Lille 3.0 653 am 10/22 spotter
Frenchville 2.0 630 am 10/22 dot
Stockholm 2.0 625 am 10/22 spotter
St. Aurelie 2.0 1000 am 10/22 border patrol
Daaquam 1.5 1002 am 10/22 border patrol
Madawaska 1.0 630 am 10/22 dot
Caribou 0.7 800 am 10/22
Ashland T 625 am 10/22 dot
Limestone T 842 am 10/22
Van Buren T 630 am 10/22 spotter

Also, I apologize for not updating this sooner...with the Red Sox playoffs just ending and the hectic Policy Vote I haven't paid too much attention to the weather recently.

After a few showers today we should go back to the sun and the cool weather until another chance at showers next weekend. Enjoy it!

Still Not Much to Say

2008-10-18T07:39:00.002-04:00

Sorry for not updating this for a little while, but the only reason I didn't because there just isn't any interesting weather to write about for the time being. We've already talked about how the coastal storm is going to miss us and just give the southern Mid-Atlantic some showers (which still holds true). That was the only mildly important feature of this week's weather to discuss and nothing much is going to happen with it.

Seasonal weather is going to continue for the next few days...enjoy it! Hopefully we can get some more interesting weather around here.

Not Much to Say

2008-10-14T16:26:00.001-04:00

Not much to say guys...really nothing new on the storm I've been talking about. Still looks to go out to sea and only give the Maryland/Virgina/Delaware area some showers. It's still in the 100 hour range on the models, so it could change but with the previously mentioned +NAO and -PNA, I doubt it. Other that that, there's just not much to say. Enjoy the seasonal weather guys!

500 Visits

2008-10-12T22:31:00.001-04:00

Wow, thank you to all the readers who visit this blog and have brought it up to 500 visits. You guys are great! Now let's make it 1000 ;) .

Previous Discussion Continued and the "Suppression Speech"

2008-10-12T19:42:00.000-04:00

Alright, the CPC site is back up and I'm ready to continue. That storm on the models is going to scoot south because of a quick zonal flow. It's not going to materialize and it's not going to affect us. Why? It's because of a NAO that is going to be very positive and a PNA that is going to be very negative. That's the opposite scenario we would want for a storm to ride up the coast.

Here are the NAO and PNA:
This storm will be happening (more like not happening) on Friday night and Saturday of next week (17th and 18th), so you can see by those two images that the NAO will be + and the PNA -. This means that the storm is NOT going to be suppressed by an overly negative NAO. In fact, it's the opposite.

This leads me to winter and the common theme I've been seeing over the last few days is that an overly negative NAO might suppress storms leading to below average snow totals. Well, to be honest, I'm not buying it right now. There is suppression every winter - it happens from time to time. It's just not something we can pinpoint now. Might there be suppression and thus not as much snow for the northeast? Sure. Might there be minimal supression leading to a cold and snowy winter, which a negative NAO and neutral ENSO suggest? Sure. It's something to watch, but it's not something I'm going to base a forecast on right now. I'm thinking a cold and snowy winter just as a negative NAO and neutral ENSO usually lead to. Suppression is a small detail that we're just going to have to wait until winter to see how it plays out.

Long Range - Possible Storm Next Week?

2008-10-12T14:13:00.004-04:00

I've been talking about it for 2 days now and I'm going to continue today...But today, it's looking like this storm gets pushed south and barely affects anyone in the Mid-Atlantic at all. Now the reason I'm bringing this up really is not to hype a possibly non-existent and relatively weak storm late next week, but it's to show you why the storm is going to stay south.

Of course the images I need to show are on a site that is down right now, so this blog entry will be continued with my reasoning and a little winter talk once that site goes back up.

October 11 Long Range Discussion

2008-10-11T14:33:00.002-04:00

Well, there are 2 things I want to focus on for today's long range discussion.

The GFS has been showing some type of storm that could affect our area next week for the last few days and that has continued on today's 12z model run. This time, it's an upper level low that would drop 1'' of rain in some spots. I'm not forecasting for this to happen since it's in the 250+ hour range, but because it has been shown in some way for a while, it's something to watch.

Another thing I want to point out is the remarkable outbreak of cold air we may have towards the 24th of October that could bring first flurries to areas west of I-95. I stress the word could because that's 300+ hours out on the GFS and certain to change. As it looks verbatim right now, west of I-95 would have a shot at flurries after the departure of the storm mentioned above.
Look at where the GFS puts the 0 degree surface temp line:

Now I do think it's very possible the GFS is overestimating the extent of the cold air, but still, we have a slim shot (as it looks now) to see our first flurries around the 24th.

Other than that, not much to talk about as we should see very nice weather for the next couple of days with the previously mentioned very slim chance at some showers Monday.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend everyone!

Columbus Day Weekend Forecast/Long Range

2008-10-10T17:27:00.004-04:00

This weekend looks to feature some excellent weather for the Northeast as high pressure is going to remain in control with temperatures either side of 70. The only thing to watch for is the very slight chance of some isolated showers on Monday but those should be few and far between.

In the long range, we're still watching the chance for a few storms to come near us next week and possibly give the Mid Atlantic and New England some rain. As it looks right now, these storms would be pushed south of us by high pressure and only give the Southern Mid-Atlantic some rain. Of course, it's still very early and this could change as the dates for the storms near.

Enjoy the weekend everyone!

Custom Look for the DS2434 Weather Blog

2008-10-09T18:45:00.003-04:00

I decided to play around with GIMP and I've created a custom look for the maps I'll be putting on here and the forums this fall and winter.

Here's a sample...

Weather Update: Seasonal (and boring...) Weather

2008-10-07T16:44:00.002-04:00

Well, there hasn't been much of anything to talk about in the weather department for the last few days and that's going to continue for the next week or so. I'm expecting it to be seasonal and very nice for the days to come.

Notes:

We may see some showers Thursday afternoon and evening, but it doesn't look like a washout by any means. Any showers should be occasional and light.
Long range models showing some fronts possibly coming through next week with a little rain, but it's much too early and the models are far too inaccurate at that range to forecast it - just something to put in the back of your mind.
384 hour GFS is showing a coastal storm that could bring heavy rain to the area in about 2 weeks. Now obviously I'm not forecasting for that to happen as it most likely wont, but I am bringing it up because storm tracks of Autumn can possibly give us a little hint about what the winter storm tracks will be like. If this were to happen exactly as the 384 hr GFS says it will (it won't), some areas would probably see 1''+ of rain. Again, 95% chance it doesn't happen, but keep it in the back of your minds.

Well, that's about it...enjoy the nice weather!

ALDS (Angels vs. Red Sox) Game 3 Forecast

2008-10-05T08:38:00.002-04:00

Today is Game 3 of the 2008 ALDS and the Red Sox have once again taken the first two games from the Angels...this time doing it on the road. But since this is a weather blog, I'm not going to go on about how great the Red Sox are.

Here's tonight's forecast:

Game Time: 7:17 PM @ Fenway Park in Boston
Temperatures: Start time: 54 7th inning stretch: 51 End Time: 50
Precipitation: Slight Chance of Showers - shouldn't delay the game.
Score: Red Sox 4, Angels 2

All in all, it's going to be a pretty chilly night at Fenway with a few showers in the vicinity, but I'm not expecting to see any rain delays out of them.

Kyle Landfall/Impacts

2008-09-27T16:44:00.002-04:00

Latest map:

The REAL TS Kyle

2008-09-27T10:37:00.004-04:00

I mistakenly put up a map for the coastal low that is affecting the area right now that was titled "TS Kyle". But without further ado, here's the real TS Kyle (70mph) discussion:

The high has weakened since last night and it's going to continue to do so, and that should allow Kyle to move more NNE until it makes landfall (and it appears to be doing that already when looking at the latest satellite). I don't see 94L sucking Kyle in any more and I don't think it's going to happen.

I expect Kyle will move more NNE and make landfall somewhere in far western Nova Scotia, possibly sending some outer rain bands into New England, but at this time that is all I'm expecting from it.

As far as intensity, I expect Kyle to around a 70-80mph TS/hurricane at landfall. Looking at the shear map, Kyle is taking some decent shear right now and that will continue, so I don't think he's going to intensify much more than what he is right now, but I think the 4mph required to make it a hurricane could possibly be achieved.

As for the impacts, I'm thinking minor wind damage and surge for western Nova Scotia, but as with any tropical system, flooding could be a problem. And again, the only US impacts, in my opinion, are going to be some rain bands for eastern New England and some high surf for New England coastal waters especially.

TS Kyle Rainfall

2008-09-25T19:14:00.003-04:00

Hey guys, sorry for not blogging much lately...there hasn't been too much to talk about. Should be blogging much more frequently once late fall and winter start.

Anyways, here's my rainfall map for Kyle:

September 9th Severe

2008-09-08T22:20:00.001-04:00

*Note that shear will be battling the cloud-cover in New England so we could see some severe weather right now...it could go either way right now and we'll just have to wait and see what happens tomorrow.

Hanna Rainfall

2008-09-05T16:15:00.003-04:00

Sorry for not updating this sooner guys...but here's my rain map for Hanna...flooding is a concern as she comes up the coast as a minimal tropical storm.
Also: Winds should be near 40-45 miles an hour as it nears New England...we've had worse Nor'easters than this...I think the concern for wind damage is pretty minimal at this point. Maybe some downed trees and powerlines. Winds will be highest to the east of the storm, so the Cape and Eastern MA will have the highest winds (gusts to 60mph) as far as New England is concerned.

Gustav

2008-08-27T16:05:00.003-04:00

Here's my Gustav first call...more discussion and maps will come later.

Beautiful Weather

2008-08-23T12:23:00.003-04:00

We've been in quite a stretch of beautiful weather over the last few days and that should continue into next week. Not much to say other than that...I just got back from vacation yesterday and we had lows in the mid 30's and low 40's in some areas around the area I was in...quite a precursor to Fall I'd say.

TS Fay continues to affect the Florida Panhandle area with flooding rains and will continue moving west today as a minimal tropical storm.

Final Fay Forecast

2008-08-17T15:57:00.003-04:00

Here's my final Fay projected path/intensity forecast...the map speaks for itself.
*Note: I am forecasting for it to landfall as a Category 1 Hurricane but I do believe there is the chance for it to remain a strong tropical storm at landfall. Either way, Florida will experience flooding rain and strong winds from Fay.

August 16th Discussion

2008-08-15T23:14:00.002-04:00

Tomorrow should be a very similar day to today. The only difference will be where the severe weather sets up. Today it was the NYC Metro Area (there was even a tornado warning for NYC) Tomorrow it will be in NH, MA, ME, RI, and northern CT. The area with the highest potential (CAPE 1500-2000) is the Lowell/Nashua/Manchester/Concord corridor in central New England. That is where most of the severe reports should be. The other areas I mentioned only have CAPE of 1000-1500. I'm not expecting much severe weather, but I believe there should be some.

Other than that, I think the rest of the northeast is in for a pretty nice day tomorrow.

TS Fay continues to spin near Hispaniola, and once we are able to figure out how much Hispaniola's rugged terrain affected the storm, I'll post my intensity and track forecast maps here...probably later tomorrow or Sunday.

August 15th Discussion

2008-08-14T20:59:00.002-04:00

Well, we've had 2 nice days in a row...and that streak is about to be broken. Tomorrow we are going to be under the influence of a trough which will give us some showers and storms throughout the day. The area at greatest risk for these showers and storms is southern MA, CT, the NYC metro area, and northern NJ. The rest of the area will see some spot showers and storms but should not experience widespread showers/storms like southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic will.

Some of the storms are going to be severe with CAPE values in the aforementioned areas between 1000-2000 J/kg and LI being -4 to -6. That is not conducive to a widespread severe outbreak but I think we'll see some severe storms in those areas along with the non-severe storms and showers.

92L

2008-08-14T15:02:00.003-04:00

92L is much better organized today and looks like it will become a tropical depression later on today/tonight. NOAA is flying over it right now and the NHC will possibly upgrade it to a tropical after the next update or two.

I'll have a full write up on this later tomorrow morning when the NHC updates and after the NOAA flight reports its findings.

August 14th Discussion

2008-08-13T20:25:00.003-04:00

Tomorrow is looking like another nice day for the Northeast except for some possible late-afternoon severe storms in Pennsylvania. Northern PA is at a 5% slight risk for severe storms tomorrow due to CAPE being 1000-1500 J/kg and LI being -4 - -6. Again, not a big outbreak by any means...just some isolated severe storms in northern PA. The rest of the Mid-Atlantic and New England should not have to deal with severe weather tomorrow.

Special Note: Invest 92L has remarkably gotten its act together in the last 10 hours, showing increased shower activity and convection. This is leading the NOAA to investigate the storm from the air...a flight that was canceled this morning due to the Invest being completely unorganized. I'll update on Invest 92L (or the next Tropical Depression) tomorrow.

Thurs/Friday Coastal Low

2008-08-13T16:55:00.002-04:00

A coastal low is going to miss the region tomorrow and Friday as it will move well south of the 40/70 benchmark, giving Long Island and Cape Cod a few showers possibly. The effects of the 1004mb low will be minimal in the area as I'm not expecting any showers or storms to make it past coastal areas. Winds should also stay offshore so I'm not expecting anything more than breezy conditions in coastal areas. (Offshore winds could gust as high as 40mph).

Also, I'm not expecting this to become a tropical or subtropical system as there is too much shear in the north Atlantic which will not allow it to develop into anything tropical/subtropical.

Some minimal severe weather is possible as well in some areas tomorrow/Friday but I will talk about that in the daily discussions later tonight.

Update on Invest 92L

2008-08-13T11:16:00.002-04:00

Invest 92L is looking even more disorganized today and this has led the National Hurricane Center to downgrade it from an area of high potential for tropical development to an area of moderate potential for tropical development. Here's the latest visible satellite image of 92L...

As you can see, there really isn't much to this system right now. It has been kept disorganized by the dry air and shear its encountering as it drifts WNW near the Lesser Antilles. Therefore I don't think that this is something we really need to worry about at this time and it should be something very slow to develop if it develops at all. As for track, I'm looking for it to go just north of the Dominican Republic and through eastern Cuba right now. This is not set in stone but is rather the most likely track at this time. If this system starts increasing in convection/becomes a little more organized, I'll have updates on it later but right now it looks like 92L won't be much of a threat to anyone.

August 13th Discussion

2008-08-12T21:21:00.002-04:00

Not much to talk about for tomorrow...I'm not expecting severe weather so it looks like the Northeast should be in for a very nice day. The only thing we need to focus on tomorrow is the two Invests in the Atlantic which continue to look pretty unorganized at this point...I'll update the blog on them tomorrow.

Invest 92L

2008-08-12T11:53:00.000-04:00

The tropics are becoming active again and we have 2 Invest systems out in the open Atlantic now. I'm going to focus on 92L today as it is closer to the Carribean Islands and the US while 93L is sitting off Africa at this time.

92L is situated in the open waters of the Atlantic, about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It is very unorganized at this time as you can see from the visible satellite image below.

It's in a moderate shear environment right now, which is not tearing the system apart but not allowing it to strengthen or organize itself better either. Because of this I'm not expecting it to develop very much...maybe a TD in the next few days and then possibly a very weak TS after that as it nears the Carribean Islands. I'm not expecting this to become a potent tropical system at this time.

The track of Invest 92L is still not well defined as it is still a ways away from land. Though based on some computer models and the all-important steering currents, I think that this should hit the Lesser Antilles in a few days and then head just south of the Dominican Republic and Cuba. It's too early to forecast exact strength and path now, obviously, as the system is well East of the Lesser Antilles. I'll have maps and updates on this as it comes closer to the Carribean Islands.

August 12 Severe Weather/Discussion

2008-08-12T02:53:00.000-04:00

Tomorrow should be another day of possible severe weather in New England, something we have been dealing with all summer. Again, severe storms may pop up in the afternoon particularly late-afternoon) with the main threat being damaging straight-line winds and hail. The areas that I think are at the most risk are western NH, MA, and northern CT at a 10% slight risk. All other areas in New England, except eastern Maine (no risk), are at a 5% slight risk. As you can see, I'm not expecting a big severe outbreak by any means, just another nuisance event.

I think that the rest of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast should be able avoid the severe weather tomorrow and be in for a rather nice day.

New 2/26 Map

2008-02-25T13:00:00.000-05:00

Feb, 26 Storm Map

2008-02-24T14:26:00.000-05:00

2/26-2/27 Storm 00z Model Analysis

2008-02-24T08:10:00.000-05:00

Model disagreement- are you surprised? First, let's take the GFS and NAM. Both of these models are in fairly good agreement with the storm. Both models take a track west to east through the country and slide right through Central New England. This warms everyone up so it's mainly rain unless you're in far northern New England. The NAM also forms a double-barreled low in the White Mountains of NH, which warms things up even more. Now we have the GGEM, which brings the low through southern New England. That would also warm things up considerably, but also allow for some prolonged mixing in northwest MA and north. Then the Euro, which is farther south than the GFS and NAM which would probably give ice and snow to NW MA and north. It seems to have the support of the MM5. Then, we have the NAVY, the clear outlier. It also brings the low west to east but takes it off the Jersey shore and takes it just south of the benchmark and gives all of New England N and W of Boston all snow and quite a bit of it. Right now I'm going with a blend of the Euro and GFS, which would lead to mainly rain for the Mid-Atlantic, but ice and snow for central and northern New England. Maps coming up after the 12z runs!

Feb 26/27 Storm Scenarios

2008-02-23T20:38:00.000-05:00

Here's my first guess with the storm.

Central NJ and south: All Rain
Northern NJ, NYC, CT, RI, southeast MA: Mix to rain
Southern/Central/Boston area MA- brief snow to mix to rain
Western MA to southern NH and much of PA- snow to mix to ice
Central NH/VT: Snow to mix
Northern NH/VT: Heavy Snow

18z NAM/GFS Analysis

2008-02-23T17:52:00.000-05:00

NAM
GFSBoth of the models seem to be in pretty good agreement. Both show an inside runner cutting through NY and New New England which would quickly change some initial snow in many places to rain or freezing rain. The area with the best chance of all and accumulating snow is in the ski areas of Northern New England. Now ice may be a problem in some areas, but that will be determined on later model runs... check back in the morning for an update on the 00z model runs as some foreign models are colder and not in agreement with the GFS and NAM.

2/22 storm recap; 2/26-2/27 storm

2008-02-23T13:08:00.001-05:00

Well, for the first time this year, NYC and northern NJ got a significant snowfall. New England didn't do too shabby either. Here's some NWS snowfall reports:
Windsor Locks, CT- 7.8''
Somers, CT- 8.0''
Gloucester, MA- 10.5''
Chicopee, MA- 8.5''
Chesterfield, MA- 8.8''
Reading, MA- 10.2''
Winthrop, MA- 9.1''
Boylston, MA- 10.3''
NYC- 6''(Central Park)

With this storm gone, we eye our next one that should occur on Tuesday and Wednesday in the Northeast. This one looks considerably warmer though, and much of the area will be seeing some mixing with a good amount of rain. The storm will be an inside runner, cutting through NY and MA. Therefore, there will be mixing and rain for most of the area. Of course, there will be some snow in some areas before mixing and rain occurs. The amount of snow will be determined later as the models are obviously not in total agreement and it is still early. The models will probably change their solutions before the storm occurs. I am not, however, expecting it to become a coastal or a magical high pressure to come and funnel in cold air. It's looking like a mainly rain storm for the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. The area with the best chance to stay all snow is in the ski areas of NH and VT. There, more than 8'' may fall. More updates coming soon!